Existential Risks in Aviation Disarmament Foresight: Why the Future Needs Urgent Preparedness

Author: Lynn Frederick Dsouza

In an era of rapid technological escalation and geopolitical instability, the aviation sector is facing an increasingly complex threat landscape—one that includes not only traditional security challenges but also existential risks. At ESPIRIDI, we believe that strategic foresight in aviation disarmament must evolve to address these high-impact, low-probability scenarios that could threaten national and global survival.

Understanding Existential Risks in Aviation

Existential risks are defined as threats that could cause the extinction of humanity or permanently curtail its potential. While typically associated with climate change or artificial intelligence, aviation now occupies a frontline position due to the proliferation of dual-use technologies, autonomous aerial systems, and hypersonic weapons.

From hijacked unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) equipped with chemical payloads to the accidental triggering of military conflict via commercial air corridors, the spectrum of aviation-linked existential risks is broader—and more urgent—than ever before.

Aviation as a Disarmament Foresight Priority

Traditional disarmament frameworks have largely focused on nuclear and conventional weapons. However, aviation platforms—from satellites to drones—now play a pivotal role in surveillance, delivery, and deterrence. These systems, while critical for national security and development, can be easily weaponized in times of conflict or sabotage.

Strategic foresight in aviation disarmament demands a multidimensional approach:

Early-warning systems for hybrid threats.
Scenario planning that includes state and non-state actors using commercial aircraft or drones.
Horizon scanning of emerging technologies like AI-piloted aircraft, quantum radars, and directed-energy weapons.

This integrated foresight approach is essential to avoid technological determinism and ensure aviation does not become the next theatre of global catastrophe.

Key Existential Risk Scenarios in Aviation

1. AI Weaponization of Commercial Aircraft

With the advent of AI-powered avionics, autonomous decision-making in flight operations could be co-opted by malicious actors. Imagine a scenario where self-flying aircraft are hacked mid-air, transformed into kamikaze drones—this is no longer science fiction.

2. Synthetic Biology Payloads in UAVs

Synthetic bio-agents engineered to target specific populations could be dispersed via UAVs across urban areas. The fusion of synthetic biology and drone technology creates a new category of bio-existential risk.

3. Space-to-Earth Kinetic Attacks

With military satellites becoming the norm, the threat of space-based aviation platforms being used for kinetic strikes on airports or strategic air bases looms large. The lack of disarmament treaties covering these platforms leaves a critical gap.

4. Hypervelocity Aircraft Collisions

As nations race to build hypersonic aircraft, the risk of catastrophic in-air collisions with commercial jets or misidentified aerial objects increases. These events could escalate into full-scale conflicts if misinterpreted.

Why Foresight Is the Only Antidote

Aviation disarmament foresight is not about predicting the future—it's about preparing for plausible futures. At ESPIRIDI, we use our proprietary Dragon Governance Forecasting Matrix to analyze signals, trends, wild cards, and policy inertia points related to existential threats in aviation.

We combine methods such as:

Backcasting from failure scenarios (e.g., a hacked drone causing regional blackout)
Cross-impact analysis between climate change, air traffic density, and AI automation
Geopolitical trend mapping around airspace militarization

This anticipatory intelligence helps governments, regulators, and global organizations create disarmament policies that are resilient, inclusive, and future-fit.

Global Policy Gaps and What Must Be Done

Currently, there is no universal treaty that addresses:

Autonomous aerial disarmament
Dual-use UAV regulation
Existential bio-aviation threats

To fill these gaps, we propose:

Aviation Disarmament Foresight Task Forces within UNODA and ICAO.
Cross-border scenario planning exercises involving civil-military actors.
A Strategic Aviation Security Index (SASI) to benchmark global readiness, especially in disarmament-linked vulnerabilities.

ESPIRIDI’s Role in Building a Safer Aviation Future

As a women-led, foresight-driven strategic advisory firm, ESPIRIDI LLP works at the intersection of aviation, security policy, and disarmament governance. Our initiatives in collaboration with WICCI NAC and partnerships with UN bodies aim to mainstream gender-inclusive, tech-savvy, and anticipatory approaches to existential risk governance.

We also develop:

Policy toolkits for aviation resilience
Futures literacy workshops for airspace regulators
CUAS (Counter-Unmanned Aerial System) solutions grounded in ethical AI and public safety

Our upcoming Multi-Disciplinary International Security Futures Research Centre will pioneer research into aviation disarmament foresight for peacebuilding and sustainable skies.

Flying into the Future, Consciously

Aviation is not just a vehicle of progress; it could also become the vector of existential threats if left unchecked. Foresight is no longer a luxury—it is a necessity. At ESPIRIDI, we are committed to helping the world transition from fear to foresight, from reaction to resilience.

Join us in shaping disarmament foresight for a world where every flight leads toward peace, not peril.

For more information please contact: Lynn Frederick Dsouza, Founder & Director - ESPIRIDI, Email: lynn.dsouza@espiridi.com or visit espiridi.com